Analyst Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Sales for 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust sales for the Nintendo Switch 2, projecting approximately 4.3 million units sold in the US market during 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This prediction positions the Switch 2 as a significant player, capturing roughly one-third of the total US console market (excluding handheld PCs). This echoes the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded initial projections and necessitated air-freighting additional consoles to meet demand.

While considerable anticipation surrounds the Switch 2's unveiling, translating this hype into substantial sales remains uncertain. Several factors will influence its 2025 performance, including launch timing, hardware capabilities, and the competitiveness of its game library. A pre-summer launch, potentially timed around Japan's Golden Week, could significantly boost sales.

Piscatella acknowledges potential supply chain challenges, mirroring the launch difficulties experienced with the original Switch and the PS5. However, Nintendo's preparedness for this remains unknown, leaving open the possibility of either sufficient stockpiling or a repeat of past shortages.

Despite the optimistic Switch 2 forecast, Piscatella anticipates the PlayStation 5 retaining its leading position in US console sales. The highly anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2025, along with other major PS5 titles, poses a significant challenge to the Switch 2's dominance. Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on the quality of its hardware and the appeal of its launch titles.

The analyst's key prediction: 4.3 million Switch 2 units sold in the US in 2025 (assuming a first-half launch). This represents approximately one-third of the total US console market share (excluding handheld PCs).